An assessment of the maritime ferry market for the Baltic Sea region is carried out on the basis of a group of carrier companies and statistics for 2019. To assess the impact of sea passenger ports on each other, the pie charts are used. This research is carried out on the basis of the Princess Anastasia ferry ship and cruises using St. Petersburg port as a start and end point. Based on the research, it is established that there is a trend to increase the passenger traffic in this region and increase the size of cruise and ferry vessels. At the same time, it is found, that a trend of decreasing the cruise ships is observed, but their sizes are significantly increasing, which requires the modernization of passenger port infrastructure and investments in it. Based on the research, the assessment of constraints in the development of new route lines in the Baltic Sea region is given. To solve the route estimation problem, a mathematical model and an objective function that seeks to minimize possible costs are presented. Solving this problem requires observing a large number of boundary conditions, which in practice leads to a simplification of this objective function and finding only some boundary solutions. On the other hand, although this model has the accuracy of the process description, it does not allow taking into account the dynamics of passenger flows. To eliminate this circumstance, the maximum flow problem is stated and a new model for choosing a ferry transport network between different marine passenger ports is presented. The developed model takes into account the interests of passengers traveling on their own vehicles. It is established that the results of using the model can be used to build a methodological basis for the route ferry network for the selected region of the sea. The results of when building model should be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the systems «sea ferry line - passenger sea port - urban transport space near the terminal» and projected new ring ferry routes.

The probabilistic assessment (using stochastic methods) of the design annual capacity of the marine loading complex of specialized coal export sea ports and terminals, the technological loading and unloading operations of which are carried out by high-performance conveyor transport is considered in the study. This task is complex and covers the various topics: technological processes of the fleet and port equipment, operational and technical characteristics of sea port transshipment complexes and the commercial fleet. The object of research is the technological processes of marine fleet operation and modern marine export coal terminal using conveyor mechanization. Marine loading complex is defined as the boundaries, as the key and most complex technological zone of the terminal. Subject of the study is stochastic modeling methods for obtaining the functional range of results of probabilistic estimation of marine loading complex throughput. In the paper, the type of model and its logic are substantiated, the structure of the model with the composition and the elements interconnection is formed, the boundaries of the model are designates, the probability distributions of the initial parameters are determined, a computational algorithm for the model of probabilistic assessment of the annual capacity of marine loading complex is developed, a computational experiment with model is performed. As a result of the research, the main goal has been achieved - a stochastic model for the probabilistic assessment of throughput of marine loading complex of coal export terminals has been created and approved. The scientific newness of the study is that for the first time for specialized export coal terminals a methodology for probabilistic estimation of marine loading complex throughput using stochastic modeling has been developed. The stochastic modeling allows you to increase the accuracy and correspondence of the designed throughput of marine loading complex to the real cargo turnover of operating coal terminals. Stochastic modeling of transport systems opens up new possibilities in terms of solving scientific, technological design problems and has a high research potential. For logistics and technical systems, the developed stochastic model has the potential to be applied for optimization of inefficient processes and throughput increase.

Currently, in the Russian part of the shipping industry, when solving the tasks of nautical astronomy, a printed edition of the Nautical Astronomical Almanac (NAY, in Russian), every year produced by the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is used. In the context of the digital technologies development, there is a need to create its digital analogue, capable to automatically calculate the spherical coordinates of the bodies and other navigation parameters at any given time. In the process of performing this work, a number of mathematical theories and algorithms that are necessary to implement the digital analogue of the Marine Astronomical Yearbook are analyzed. In the paper, a method for calculating the equatorial coordinates of the navigational celestial bodies (Sun, Moon, navigational stars and Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn planets) for any given time is described. For the algorithm for calculating the equatorial coordinates of the navigational stars, the principles of taking into account the precession and nutation of the Earth axis, as well as aberrations, are described. Optimal numerical theories of motion (planetary theories) are selected to calculate the ecliptic coordinates of the planets, and their use is described directly for calculating the equatorial coordinates. The expansion of planetary theory DE200 proposed by J. Chapront and the theory of Variations Séculaires des Orbites Planétaires 87 proposed by P. Bretagnon are considered. A generalized set of algorithms based on the theories of the moon motion, which is necessary to calculate the equatorial coordinates of this celestial body, is considered. As a result of the analysis, the structure of the mathematical model is formed. It will form the basis of the developed «Astronomical Almanac» software, which will be an improved version of the Marine Astronomical Yearbook.

The algorithm and program for the model of operation of the hydrocarbon loading complex, which consists of an ice class shuttle tanker and offshore platform equipped with an oil shipping system, are considered in the paper. The model allows you to analyze the process of carrying out cargo operations, taking into account the time the vessels stood at loading, waiting for the start of cargo operations, the downtime of the platform equipment in anticipation of the tankers arrival. By means of modeling, a statistical analysis of the system operation at specified time intervals is carried out, simulation modeling is carried out with arbitrary distributions of the intervals between the arrival times of ships and their service time, with various disciplines and service parameters. It is noted that solving the practical problem of ensuring the smooth operation of ships on the line, estimating the time intervals of oil loading on the platform under conditions of unsteady traffic flow can be successfully performed by simulating the problems of planning ice pilotage of vessels in the Arctic regions. The operability of the model based on the use of tools of computing environments and digital technologies is determined by the high level of adequacy of the studied characteristics to the real process of organizing the movement of tankers according to the established schedule, taking into account the time of technological operations during oil shipment and changes in fleet composition. Modeling using object programming technologies allows you to study the various schemes of the tanker fleet composition by simulating variable and observable alternating states and make informed decisions based on quantitative estimates of the results of a machine experiment. The program and examples of evaluating the operating parameters on the model are given.

The issue of any navigational isoline interpolation by cubic spline of Lagrange type has been considered in detail. The developed approach is of independent practical interest; meanwhile the task of present study is implemented in an integrated way with the finite basic method. In fact, two conceptions are majorized: a method focused on associated Lagrange multipliers in the vicinity of the optimum of the task solution and coordinate B-spline that provides iterative finding of the result within the given accuracy limits. It is demonstrated the synchronous coincidence of Lagrange splines with B-splines at nodal points using the isogeometric construction principle with difference in contours of «step-functions» and «hat-functions». The harmonized mathematical model has allowed you to realize the compromise between the Lagrange analogies and the basic finite construction for the smooth interpolation of navigational function at chaotic state of metering data «noised» by errors. The interpolation of abstract navigational isoline by set of Lagrange splines is geometrically interpreted. The detailed algorithm with new mathematical tools is presented. The task functionality can be modified before restoring the navigational isosurface on the improvised net patch. As a discussion, the author’s idea of the local interpolation applicability, provided that an additional compositional identity is introduced in order to calculate spline coefficients using explicit formulas, has been offered. The traditional formalization is transformed for logical connection establishment of spline coefficients with the measured navigational parameters. The locality allows you to manipulate invariant transformations between two different spline presentations with the formation of a single multilink attribute of bit algorithmization. Emphasis is placed on the computational advantages of the new approach on the solution stability and convergence. The hybrid unified algorithm displaces the spectrum of possibilities for processing navigational information to the search for solutions to the impossible tasks of modern navigation.

As global climate changes are becoming a major concern for climatologists and earth scientists, substantial sea ice decline in the Arctic, on the contrary, brings new possibilities for shipping, cargo transportation, and coastal mineral development. Ice cover dynamics in the Russian Arctic in the late XX - early XXI century has been investigated in the paper. On this basis, the aim to assess the prospects for ice situation improvement on the Northern Sea Route during the next decades is set. Thorough analysis of numerous scientific papers addressing this issue reveals that there is a great variety of views and forecasts on this matter. The Arctic ice, as some researchers predict, is expected to completely vanish in the summer months by the middle of the XXI century, however other insights suggest the Arctic climate cooling and subsequent sea ice growth due to the Solar constant lessening by approximately the same time. In this paper, the major factors influencing the Arctic ice dynamics, including the Arctic-North Atlantic water exchange, formation of polynyas around river estuaries, solar activity variations, are considered. The most essential indicators of the ice situation such as the ice extent of the water areas, the average and the maximum ice thickness therein, and the total area of polynyas are investigated. The time series for the above indicators are obtained by use of the ICDC reanalysis data provided by the University of Hamburg.Reanalysis datasets available for 1979-2017 are used to reveal the major trends in the ice situation dynamics for this period. It is shown that the ice cover had been having an overall tendency to decline in the European and the West-Siberian sectors of the Russian Arctic, which in turn had been improved navigability therein. Similar trends are likely to be seen in the next two decades. In the East-Siberian and the Chukchi sectors, the similar dynamics for sea ice decline was obvious until 2007, and then the opposite trend leading to the ice situation aggravation emerged. It is thus feasible to assume that substantial improvement of ice conditions in the East- Siberian and the Chukchi Seas in the summer months is not to be expected in the next decades. Shipping safety therein will remain highly dependent on icebreaker services. It is also quite clear that in the next at least two decades the prospects for opening the transpolar shipping routes will remain illusory, whereas the Northern Sea Route will serve as the main transport artery in the Arctic.

The ship hull reliability after a given number of years of operation is considered. The hull has defects that lead to sudden and gradual failures, which must be periodically restored during repair works. The Register Rules for both sea-going vessels and inland and mixed navigation vessels indicate the characteristics of wear rates for all ship hull groups and element thicknesses required during construction and allowed after repair. This allows you to calculate the probability of a failure of the housing element due to wear (sheet sheathing or beam set) after a given number of years of operation. The presence of other hull defects that do not change over the time can affect the allowable wear of the elements in the group of bonds, reducing its value, which leads to premature failure of the elements due to the wear. Imagining the failure probability as the proportion of elements in the hull group with the same allowable wear requiring repair, it is possible to set a number of these elements. Receiving the number of elements requiring repair in all subgroups, it is possible to calculate the number of elements requiring repair in the entire group of bonds of ship hull. This allows us to further resolve the issue of the best way to repair the hull. Hull repair is the restoration of its general and local strength to a predetermined level and for a specified period of time, ensuring the safety of navigation and the safety of the carried cargo. The repair scope and the housing reliability in subsequent years of operation depend on the repair method (replacement of defective elements or their reinforcement). Replacing the housing element with a new one restores its reliability, and reinforcing the housing element only slightly increases its reliability, since it allows to increase its allowable wear. A method for calculating the occurrence probability of housing elements failures at a given point in time taking into account the performed repairs is proposed in the paper. Comparing the projected costs of hull repairs, it is possible to choose the best repair method at a given point in time, taking into account the duration and conditions of further vessel operation (reinforcing elements, replacing individual elements, replacing sections of the hull with panels or sections). A nomogram to determine the hull reliability after a specified number of years of its operation, taking into account existing defects and repairs is proposed in the paper. Such a nomogram can be used to establish the optimal thickness of the hull elements during construction and renovation.

An approach to solving the problem of reducing cavitation destruction of internal combustion engines, ship propellers, elements of hydraulic structures by using modern (Onsager, Prigogine) concepts and apparatus of nonequilibrium thermodynamics to control the cavitation process is presented. It is believed that the ideas of Rayleigh cavitation and modern modifications do not take into account the interactive, bifurcation nature of changes in the properties of substances and phenomena of the cavitation process. Visualization (holography with an exposure of 20 NS) of the cavitation region revealed threadlike, extended cavitation caverns that can be used for avalanche nucleation and cavitation control. The object of research is the cavitation region in water and its effect on the solid surface. The subject of research is the detection of bubbles in the threads form at the stage of liquid stretching and the possibility of their use to reduce the erosive effect of cavitation. The following experimental methods are used in the research: high-speed holographic imaging, interferography and acoustic cavitation. The proof of existence of cavitation bubbles in the form of filaments of different direction, type and extent in the phase of expansion of the cavitation region is given. Attention is drawn to the fact that during the experiment at the stages of compression of the cavitation region, such «bubbles» disappeared from the field of view, which confirms the fact of their existence only in the phase of the cavitation region expansion. It is recorded that the transverse size of such cavitation filaments is the same throughout the expansion phase. The processes and phenomena manifested at the stages of the cavitation region expansion are theoretically and experimentally substantiated. It is revealed that extended cavities can be used for avalanche nucleation of spherical bubbles in order to control the cavitation process. It is noted that modern optical methods of digital tracer visualization, which allow you to see in detail the stages of the cavitation process, have the great prospects. A new way to control the cavitation process on the basis of the study is an alternative to the creation of expensive cavitation-resistant materials.

One of the perspective directions of improving diesels used as the main and auxiliary engines in the ship power plants composition is increasing the temperature level providing heat losses reduction, increase of engines thermal efficiency and their fuel economy. To implement this direction, many modern diesels are equipped with high-temperature cooling systems. Increasing the coolant temperature in such systems is accompanied by increasing the pressure in the cooling systems. Increasing pressure in the cooling systems leads to increasing the power consumption required to drive the circulation pump of the internal circuit of the diesel cooling system. The research purpose is a comparative assessment of the thermal-hydraulic efficiency of high-temperature and low-temperature cooling. As an evaluation criterion, the ratio of heat withdrawn through the cooling system and the power consumption for pumping the coolant, which provides this heat removal, is used. To determine this ratio, both known analytical dependencies and the results of numerical simulation of heat transfer processes in a cylindrical channel are used during the research. The use of both research methods allows us to obtain consistent results. Based on the conducted research results, it can be concluded that despite increasing the power costs for the circulation pump drive, the transition to high-temperature cooling provides an increase of the thermal-hydraulic efficiency of the ship diesel cooling systems. The most significant increasing the thermal-hydraulic efficiency of high-temperature cooling systems is possible when using water-water heat exchangers that provide the maximum permissible temperature difference of the coolant at the engine outlet and inlet.

Burning the liquid fuel in a marine internal combustion engine, which is part of a marine power plant, entails the formation of particulate matter of carbon origin (soot). Particulate matter emitted into the environment cause a significant negative impact on all components of the environment and harm to human health. The use of catalytic purification of exhaust gases using porous permeable catalytic materials can reduce the amount of emitted particles and reduce the burden on the environment. The use of self-propagating high-temperature synthesis in the preparation of porous permeable catalytic materials allows the formation of material properties that provide an acceptable degree of purification of exhaust gases of marine diesel engines from solid particles. The decrease in the concentration of solid particles as a result of the use of catalytic treatment is carried out as a result of the fact that solid particles in the polluted gas passing through the porous structure of used material are retained in the pores and burn out at high temperature. Ensuring high-quality purification of exhaust gas from solid particles depends on a certain pore size, porosity, tortuosity and other properties of the catalytic material. In order to determine the qualitative and quantitative composition of the porous permeable catalytic material used in the purification system, the studies on ilmenite ore-based samples are conducted. Such material, due to the use of ilmenite grinding ore as the basis of the charge, allows us to reduce the cost of catalytic material in comparison with materials that use refined components. The effect of changes in pore diameter, porosity of the catalytic material and the amount of ilmenite ore grinding in the composition of the mixture on the degree of purification of exhaust gases from solid particles is studied. The results are obtained for the first time and described by the least squares method. The results of the study allowed us to determine an acceptable amount of ilmenite ore in the composition of the catalytic material, which permit to reduce the concentration of solid particles in the exhaust gases of marine diesel engines.

It is expected that since 2021, at the initiative of the International Maritime organization, the control zones for nitrogen oxide emissions in the exhaust gases of ship power plants will be expanded to cover the regions of the Baltic and North Seas. In such circumstances, shipowners operating in these regions, at the stages of modernization and construction of new ships inevitably face the problem of choosing a way to meet the new requirements. The following variants of compliance are considered: selective catalytic reduction of nitrogen oxides; application of exhaust gas recirculation system; use of alternative fuels, as well as a number of technical solutions related to the direct impact on the working process of the engine, aimed at reducing the emission of nitrogen oxides. It is noted that the consideration of various technologies to meet the new requirements and analysis of their advantages and disadvantages will create prerequisites for the choice of the concept and the way to achieve the requirements of the environmental standard TIER III, used in emission control zones. Attention is drawn to the fact that in order to achieve the requirements of the TIER III standard, first of all, the systems of selective catalytic recovery and exhaust gas recirculation are considered as the most proven technologies. In conclusion, it is noted that ensuring the environmental requirements of the TIER III standard for a wide range of operating modes of the ship’s power plant is a complex task, the solution of which can be achieved during the engine design by the simultaneous implementation of various technologies to reduce NOx emissions. The increased demand for TIER III engines can be expected to provide additional motivation for manufacturers to find and implement new design solutions aimed at reducing the content of nitrogen oxides in exhaust gases, as well as to refine and make more extensive use of already known methods to combat NOx emissions.

The results of collection, analysis and generalization of scientific materials that describe development of adaptive models of electrical power system components control are provided in the paper. The following topical problems are distinguished: creation of aggregated intelligent electrical power system with active-adaptive network; distributed electrical energy generation problem; development of flexible alternating current transmission systems; tasks of reducing the cost of the sophisticated systems analysis; metaprogramming methods application; instrumentation of genetic algorithms; the correlation problem between reliability indicators and control depth factor of ship electrical equipment; technical diagnostic systems optimization; raise of reliability by means of technical conditions forecast and malfunctions prevention; control algorithms optimization; artificial neural networks appliance; energy consumption short-term forecasting methods based on artificial neural networks appliance; active learning systems; weak parts detection during transient phenomena; modelling the processes control under non-deterministic disturbances; expert systems development problems; solving the modelling problems by various software means. It is noticed that the majority of different problems are economical and technical. On the other hand, a few tasks provide ecological function. Moreover, educational and social problems are almost not presented. Some perspective research fields are described. Namely, development of methodology based on complex system approach to the analysis of electrical power systems, artificial neural networks libraries application at C++ and Java projects, realization of electrical power systems fuzzy-neural adaptive model with reduced requirements for the computing power of hardware with the possibility of using the model for staff training.

At present, when studying the dynamic modes of complex objects operation, computer modeling is widely used, the basis of which is a programmatic interpretation of the mathematical model of an object that reproduces the processes of its functioning in time. The use of modern software products for mathematical modeling can significantly simplify the task of creating a model. Modern software applications for visual graphic modeling, for example, Matlab / Simulink, allow you to develop computer models without using programming skills. On modern Arctic gas tankers, six-phase synchronous electric motors with an excitation winding and damper windings on the rotor are used as propulsion motors. A computer model of the electric propulsion system of the Arctic gas tanker of the Yamal LNG project and a study of its operating modes by computer simulation are presented in the paper. For ice class vessels, the following modes are distinguished: maneuvering the vessel, the course of the vessel on the high seas, the operation of the vessel in ices. The propulsive complexes of such vessels should be adapted to these modes, providing maximum efficiency in each of them. The mathematical model of the object, its parameters, the computer model of the complex in the Matlab / Simulink environment, as well as the simulation results of the modes of maneuvering the vessel, the vessel course on the high seas and vessel work in the ice conditions, are described in the paper. The simulation results analysis from the point of view of increasing the electric propulsion complex efficiency in the various modes of its operation is carried out. Recommendations on the settings and limitations of a computer model of the electromotive propulsion complex are given. A computer model can be used both to study the functioning one complex and to develop computer models of integrated shipboard automated electric power systems with several electric propulsion systems.

The actual direction of maritime and inland water transport is alternative energy supply by the optoelectronic means. The study of brushless electromotor with electric energy delivery by the laser ray with using the fiber optic elements and photoelectronic transformers for the robotic digital complex for management and control of small-displacement surveying vessel motion is perspective. The connection between energy and information transmitted in the dynamic electromechanical transformers of the robotic digital complex is examined in the paper. It has been showed that the information and energy methods for processing the same experimental data lead to the identical results, namely, measuring information and energy are transmitted simultaneously through the measuring and information channel. Based on the conducted researches of brushless motor model and patents for inventions obtained by the Admiral Makarov State University of Maritime and Inland Shipping, a four-propellers robotic digital complex for managing and controlling the small-displacement self-propelled electric propulsion surveying vessel motion. The robotic small - displacement surveying vessels in conjunction with the base automatic surveying posts, combined by the atmospheric radio-optical and terrestrial fiber-optic communication channels, can be the basis of terrestrial segment of the digital measuring and information network of the Russian inland waterways.

A perspective structure of the ship’s electromotive complex with dual DC buses, which allows you to increase the reliability and survivability of the electric power system, to improve the operational, energy and weight and size characteristics of the electric propulsion system, is presented in the paper. In addition, such a structure makes it possible to reduce pollutants emissions into the environment, as well as to realize fuel savings in the range of 10-15%, depending on the operating modes of the vessel, compared with the existing structures of electric propulsion systems. The proposed structure of the ship’s electromotive complex allows braking the propellers without using the additional brake circuits with energy redistribution between the propulsion electric machines and the dissipation of braking energy in the working medium - water. Using the canonical polynomial of the seventh degree, an analytical description of the limiting reverse characteristic of the propeller is given. An algorithm for the braking and reverse of a rowing electric installation is proposed and a diagram with the power flows directions is shown. A mathematical description of the braking and reverse modes of the propulsion electric installation is given, and the control algorithms for the proposed propulsion electric installation with two propellers during braking and reverse are synthesized. Timing diagrams of changes in torque, speed and power on each of the propellers for the proposed algorithm for braking and reverse of the propeller motors are presented. The variants of the structure diagrams of the ship’s electromotive complex with dual DC buses using multilevel voltage inverters, as well as with the possibility of power supply from a single power plant, both a propulsion electric installation, and consumers of their own needs, are presented.

A method for constructing a model of actions and reactions of the ergatic human-machine system is proposed. Coordinate and parametric uncertainties are taken into account when joint controlling an electromechanical object. It is used to provide information support for the interaction of a human operator and an automaton while joint managing a technical object at the planning and execution levels. As the initial basis, many incomplete representations of elementary motions in the form of normal systems of ordinary differential equations are used. They allow us to describe the dynamics of the ergatic system state by the image point movement along a trajectory in the state space. Actions in the model are expressed through the movements of the human-machine interface controls. Therefore, “naturalness” of the interaction between management partners is achieved, which contributes to the cognitive process of improving and optimizing the management of an object, taking into account the unformalized conditions of the so-called “human factor”. The possibilities of applying clear and interval mappings to clear and interval arguments of the mathematical model of actions and responses in the presence of coordinate and parametric uncertainties are considered. The examples and methods of mathematical and computational transformation of intervals of coordinate and parametric uncertainties into a terminal multidimensional rectangular parallelepiped of uncertainty in the space of phase coordinates are given in the paper. Methods for converting uncertainties include integrating the differential equations of a human-machine system model. Integration is performed for each vertex of a multidimensional rectangular parallelepiped of uncertainty with initial values of phase variables equal to the values of the coordinates of its vertices obtained for the time moment of the end of the previous elementary motion. Illustrative examples of the transformation of uncertainty intervals in a three-dimensional state space are given, and uncertainty rectangles are constructed in the form of projections onto a two-dimensional phase space. The proposed models are technically feasible in the human-machine interface and allow the use of mathematical and computational optimization methods to improve joint management in the ergatic human-machine system.

It is noted that to date the electric power sources based on heat engines and rotating electrical machines, first of all diesel-generators, have received the most wide spread in the marine fleet. Tightening the environmental requirements and increasing the fuel prices in the recent years condition the necessity and expediency of searching for alternative kinds of electric power sources that can be used as the main ones including on ships with electric propulsion plants. The feasibility of using the static electric power sources for above mentioned purpose is researched in the paper. The types are considered, the principle of operation is described, the advantages, disadvantages and scope are listed for the following types of static electric power sources: accumulator batteries based on a new element base, supercapacitors, solar batteries, fuel cells, direct heat conversion generators. The choice of a source type is determined by the operation modes for which it is intended, and by the power of the supplied electrical consumers. Electric power sources of new generation can be used in buffer mode or in autonomous mode as the main electric power source. The use of static electric power sources in the buffer operation mode can significantly reduce the fuel consumption of electric propulsion plants in the dynamic modes, including on icebreakers and ice-going vessels during moving in ice or on waving. In this case saving is achieved by absorbing the excess energy during braking of an electric propulsion motor and its subsequent release during acceleration. Application in the second operation mode is especially relevant in connection with the tightening the environmental requirements for marine vessels. Switching the main generators off and transition to supplying from static electric power sources can reduce harmful emissions to the atmosphere and the overall level of underwater noise emitted by the vessel, which is important in biological and geophysical researches. The composition and structure of a typical circuit design solution for a ship electric power system built using the static electric power sources of new generation are given in the paper. It is concluded that the introduction of static electric power sources of new generation lets to optimize operating modes and increase the structural flexibility of the electric power installation, reduce the consumption of fuels and lubricants, increase the reliability and service life of drive engines of generating sets, reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere, and also increase propulsive power in full speed modes.