Assessment of sea passenger ferry berth occupancy under dynamic formation and changes in regional route networks

The study addresses the assessment of berth occupancy at sea passenger terminals under different configurations of regional route networks and their changes caused by external factors. The relevance of the problem is associated with the need to generate large data sets that can support informed decisions on passenger berth utilization and the development of new ferry lines using information obtained from digital port twins and forecasts of different ferry and cruise route scenarios. Sea passenger ports and terminals in the Baltic Sea region were selected as the object of the study. The need for multi-scenario simulation of ferry traffic taking into account berth characteristics and navigation-period data is substantiated. A new digital transport model describing the interaction between a group of sea terminals and ferry lines was developed to optimize ferry vessel handling. A new method for routing regional ferry services based on graph theory is also proposed for selecting cruise and ferry route options. The study applies multi-scenario simulation methods considering different traffic intensities and infrastructure characteristics of passenger ports. The model is based on actual data on Baltic Sea passenger ports and ferry traffic intensity. Its effectiveness is evaluated for the introduction of new ferry services involving St. Petersburg, Helsinki, Tallinn, and Stockholm. The effect of a new ferry line on berth occupancy at these ports is demonstrated experimentally. The developed software module of the digital port model provides data for both operational decision-making and forecasting the development of sea passenger ports. The simulation tools make it possible to assess the operation of a system of sea passenger ports and determine berth occupancy depending on changes in the route network. Multi-scenario data on berth occupancy and route-network changes can subsequently be used in optimization experiments to support strategic decisions on the development of sea passenger ports.

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