Investigation of the influence of individual factors on the level of freight rates

This paper examines the influence of individual factors on the level of freight rates in the local freight market for the transportation of grain cargoes from Russian seaports. The freight market is considered as a complex dynamic system operating under probabilistic laws, with its state determined by numerous factors of varying significance. Identifying the relative importance of these factors makes it possible to reduce the dimensionality of the mathematical model used for analyzing and forecasting the behavior of the studied system. The research presents statistical data on the dynamics of freight rates in the local grain shipping market from the ports of the Russian Federation, identifies the main importing countries of Russian grain, and outlines new trends and directions in grain exports. The dynamics of changes in grain freight rates across the main maritime basins of the Russian Federation — the Azov, Black Sea, Caspian, and Baltic — are analyzed, and the shares of each basin in the total volume of grain exports are determined. The analysis reveals no correlation between the shape of freight rate curves and the direction of transportation, as well as between vessel size and the type of grain cargo transported. A clear dependence was found between transportation distance and the vertical position of the freight rate curve on the graph, which supports the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate freight rate levels for any transport route based on a known rate curve for another route by calculating the difference in distance between them and adjusting the rate by a value proportional to the transportation distance for vessels with minimal ballast passage from the opening position to the loading port.

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