APPLICATION OF THE LOGISTIC FUNCTION TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON SEA FERRY, CRUISE LINES AND MARINE PASSENGER TERMINALS

The market of sea ferry transportation and the market of sea cruises have been investigated as one of the most promising and rapidly developing markets for international sea transportation. It is noted that the development of infrastructure is limited, on the one hand, by the internal processes and resources of each terminal, and on the other hand, by the need to respond to calls from the external environment surrounding the terminals. The size of cruise and ferry ships is increasing and the trend for population mobility continues and even increases. It is emphasized that sea passenger ports are being integrated into the transport systems of cities and regions. The existence of sufficiently developed mathematical forecasting models in the class of polynomial models, probabilistic series and other techniques that do not take into account, to a sufficient extent, the influence of the external environment, is noted. It is noted that the interests of passengers directly influence the sphere of sea passenger transportation. Therefore, the development of research and forecasting methods is relevant. The existing trends for an increase in passenger traffic are considered and the necessary statistical information on the ports and terminals of the Adriatic and Baltic Seas is presented. The developed scheme of interaction between the participants of the cruise market and the mathematical model of the port as a technical system are presented. The logistic function proposed for use in assessing the external environment has been substantiated. To determine the area of its use, a scheme for dividing the strategic and operational levels of functioning for sea passenger ports is given. A new mathematical model is considered and the main equation of the logistic function is derived. The boundary conditions for the applicability of the model are analyzed. The analytical data for the study are selected ship calls at the Passenger Port of St. Petersburg «Marine Facade» in 2019 and planned ship calls in 2020. To simulate the situation, a new consideration of various proportionality coefficients determining the demand for cruise and ferry transportation is proposed. For different values, modeling is performed in the interval of short-term forecasting. Based on the results obtained, the attractiveness conditions of the corresponding cruises and the speed of cruises purchase by passengers are formed. A complete model, taking into account the real timetable of the sea passenger port, is presented.

marine transport processes, passenger flow, simulation, ferry network, cruise network, marine passenger port, logistics function, Baltic sea, Adriatic sea, ferry line, cruise market

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