Wind regime changes on the shipping routes of the Russian seas at the end of the 20th – beginning of the 21st centuries

This article aims to assess wind regime variations in the Russian seas and identify shipping and fishing areas where the frequency of dangerous winds showed statistically significant upward trends. The assessment is based on ERA-5 global atmospheric reanalysis data on hourly mean wind velocity from 1991–2020. The methodology employed standard statistical methods for data processing. The results of the assessment of increased storm risks across all Russian seas are summarized in a table. The study confirms that the wind regime in the Russian seas is non-stationary and responds to global climate variations. The most dynamic changes in wind conditions occur in the open seas (Bering, Barents), which have free exchange with external seas and oceans. The greatest risks to shipping and fishing, associated with an increased frequency of dangerous winds given medium or high climatic norms for this indicator, were identified in the following areas: the northeastern part of the Black Sea, including approaches to the ports of Novorossiysk, Tuapse, and the Kerch Strait area (winter season); the Baltic Sea, including shipping lanes in its central part and the Gulf of Finland (winter season); the Barents Sea (winterspring season); the southwestern part of the Bering Sea, including sections of transoceanic routes (winter season); and the northwestern sector of the Pacific Ocean, including sections of shipping lanes and fishing areas off the eastern coasts of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands (winter-spring season). It is noted that ship crews and shipping company personnel should account for the increasing storm risks when planning navigation in these areas (especially those with harsh climates) and take measures to minimize them, including considering alternative routes. Emphasis is placed on the critical importance of the quality of training of ship crews for navigation in storm conditions, icing, steering failure, and assisting vessels in distress.

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