Research of data generation options based on multi-scenario modelling for decision-making under uncertainty in the development of maritime passenger terminal

The topic of the paper is the study of decision-making options under uncertainty, as well as in practical situations of working with limited data in conditions of stochastic, variable influence of the external environment in the sphere of maritime passenger transportation. Attention is drawn to the fact that in this case, making a decision on modernization only on the basis of the experience of the port manager or some industry experience, on the one hand, is quite limited in the choice of alternatives, and on the other hand, may lead to incorrect decisions in the field of development forecasting, formation of measures to change the position of the marine passenger port in the sea region in relation to other terminals and evaluation of the target function of the port. It is noted that one of the tools for data collection is continuous monitoring of changes in route ferry and cruise networks and analyzing changes in the infrastructure of other passenger ports in the region. For completeness of data it is proposed to use multi-scenario modeling in the digital twin of the sea passenger port developed in AnyLogic environment, as well as to perform optimization experiments to obtain a set of values for the number of cruise and ferry vessels for the upcoming navigation. It is noted that the use of a simulation model makes it possible to include such an influence of the external environment as the trend of increasing size of cruise and ferry ships, which forms new infrastructure requirements for the creation of new or modernization of existing berths. In this case, the introduction of prioritization in the model of the incoming flow of ships is reasonably proposed. The object of the study is the incoming flow of cruise and ferry ships with prioritization in the queue. A comparative analysis of applicability of different mathematical distributions of mass service systems for incoming ship flows into the sea passenger port system with prioritization is presented. The developed simulation model is based on the available real data on the passenger port infrastructure of marine “Passenger Port of St. Petersburg ‘Sea Facade’ and ship calls for the past years. A multi-scenario random input flow of cruise and ferry ships with several priority characteristics is considered. As a result of modeling a set of data is formed, which for the port manager is a necessary field of utility and a basis for the use of decisionmaking models under uncertainty. As a result of multi-scenario simulation, the obtained throughput simulation data under different flow distributions were analyzed. Based on the performed experiments, the efficiency of using the beta distribution was determined. Based on the simulation results, the applicability boundaries for each distribution were determined and a confidence interval of maximum intensity was obtained, which can be used as a reference for making decisions on port infrastructure modernization. The methodology of data formation on the basis of multiscenario modeling allows to form the necessary set of data taking into account the influence of the external environment for decision-making on the model of marine passenger terminal development. The presented methodology can be extended to the study of systems: “sea ferry / cruise lines — sea passenger port — land infrastructure”.

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