Impact of Yakutia wildfires on ice conditions of parts of the Laptev sea shipping lanes

The article aims to verify the hypothesis about the impact of largescale Yakutia wildfires on the ice concentration in certain parts of the Laptev Sea shipping lanes. The verification was performed using data on ice concentration monthly and daily means obtained from GLORYS12v1 reanalysis and the catalogue of Aqua and Shizuku space missions. Information on the scale and consequences of Yakutia wildfires was obtained from the remote monitoring information system of the Federal Forestry Agency. The research methodology involved the use of statistical methods, including correlation analysis. The study comprised 2001–2023 period. A significant correlation between forest burning indicators and the ice conditions in certain areas of the sea has been confirmed. The most likely cause of the identified relationship was named to be the effect of an ice cover albedo decrease due to depositing of the soot brought by southern winds from burnt forest areas, as well as earlier and warmer floods from large Siberian rivers. It has been established that in the years following periods of large-scale fires, a downward trend in ice concentration manifests itself in a number of sea areas. In the spring–summer period (May — June) they are found in the northwestern and southern parts of the sea (in the areas of formation of fast ice polynyas), which favors an earlier navigation opening. In the autumn months, due to the sea waters having consumed more heat during the summer, active ice formation begins later (October — November), contributing to its later closure. The extent to which wildfires impact changes in the ice concentration of the Laptev Sea against the backdrop of other significant factors (variations in temperature, solar insolation, wind conditions, sea level, etc.) is not straightforward and needs further research. Provided that current trends in climate change persist, it is safe to predict that in the years following periods of intense wildfires, the period of safe autonomous navigation for high ice class vessels (Arc6 and Arc7) in the Laptev Sea will be longer than normal and will comprise all months from May to December.

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