Monte-Carlo analysis model for evaluation of container terminal parameters

Abstract

This paper considers using Monte-Carlo analysis method for evaluation some of the parameters of a container terminal. A high amount of scientific work on this topic is noted in domestic literature. International scientific literature concerning usage of Monte-Carlo method for simulating different parameters of container terminals is also analyzed. We note that foreign authors often use Monte-Carlo analysis as an auxiliary method, for example, for checking results of discrete-event simulation model of a complicated logistical system for adequacy, whereas domestic authors often use Monte-Carlo analysis as a method for direct evaluation of container or other cargo terminals parameters. This study proposes a variant of a model for evaluating the necessary container yard capacity, its area and berth utilization of a container terminal, using Monte-Carlo analysis method. We develop a model based on analytical formulas, where some initial parameters take form of probabilistic distributions, rather than determined values. Such parameters are expected cargo turnover, vessel handling equipment productivity and container dwell times. It should be noted that all these parameters can be preliminarily evaluated by port designers, investors or cargo terminal operators. We show an example of model calculations using Monte-Carlo analysis method and some values of initial parameters. Observed results are adequate for a model of such scope as it shows, for example, that most expected value of berth utilization becomes lower as the number of berths becomes larger.