RESEARCH OF THE SEA PASSENGER PORT INFRASTRUCTURE MODERNIZATION TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

The efficiency of operation and interaction of “sea ferry/cruise company-sea passenger port-land transport infrastructure” systems directly depends on the dynamic influence of the external environment, which today determines the transition from deterministic models of decision-making to probabilistic ones. These changes on the basis of current trends in the industry in the form of the introduction of large cruise and ferry ships create the need to form a decision- making system for the reasonable modernization of infrastructure for the heads of ports and terminals. It is necessary to systematically modernize both the berthing infrastructure and change the internal processes of passenger handling in the terminal. The problems of forecasting the development of seaports in connection with the gradual recovery of passenger traffic, caused by a long period of restrictions due to COVID-19, are considered in the paper, as the first priority is the resumption of the route networks of the sea regions, which provide local passenger mobility. Based on the investigated models of ports and terminals evolution (Anyport model, Three Generations model, Workport model) it is revealed that today it is necessary to evaluate possible predictive scenarios of port development. The necessity of having the tools allowing to operatively analyze the situation in the sphere of sea ferry transportation and to model the scenarios of port congestion has been revealed and proved. The approach to estimate the variants of berths loading at simultaneous call of several big cruise vessels on the basis of models of mass service systems for subsequent estimation of infrastructure is considered in the paper. The object of the research is the Baltic Sea region and existing routes of cruise and ferry lines. A new theoretical partitioning of the region and sea passenger ports into four sections is proposed. The systematic analysis of all existing cruise and ferry line routes in each area has been carried out; data on cruise and ferry ship size, passenger capacity, average ticket price, and distance between terminals on the route have been presented. On the basis of the formed approach a new digital dynamic route map that allows both to investigate the current state of the route network and to estimate the possible changes is built. On the basis of the received data it is proved that the best development of passenger sea ports and terminals infrastructure is observed in the segment between the countries of Russia-Estonia-Finland-Sweden. Presented sea terminals have successfully realized the possibility of simultaneous reception of two big cruise vessels and modernized infrastructure during the period of restrictions on the reason of COVID-19, which corresponds to the formation of new points of growth in the Baltic Sea region, taking into account recovery of route networks. The generated big data on route networks accurately define the current state in the sphere of sea ferry/cruise transportation and they should be used in new digital simulation transport models when modeling different variants of sea passenger port operation, both at the stage of short-term planning and when solving the group of questions of development forecasting, which is especially relevant in the situation of competition between terminals for passenger traffic.

ferry network, sea passenger port, Baltic Sea, ferry line intensity, development forecasting, stochastic models, decision making under uncertainty, infrastructure modernization

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