THE TENDENCIES OF THE GLOBAL CONTAINER TRANSPORT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY

The core of scientific methodology is determinism or a vision of connection among all natural, sociological and thinking events and processes. The findings of the modern time in the scope of natural sciences, such as thermodynamics, statistics, quantum mechanics, modern physics of microworld, cosmology and later in sociological sciences, though added some uncertainty and a limited indeterminism, but mostly served as a superstructure on the basement of determinism. The appearance of synergy has allowed methodologically to connect the predictable behavior (i. e. determined) of the systems on the levels of their consistent development with their metamorphoses (catastrophic and deep changes of their structures and features). This connection has appeared in the definition of place and limits of the possibilities of traditional mathematics, probability theory, theory of catastrophes, theory of behavior of dissipative structures and others. For a long time the findings, made in this fundamental science, have been left in the limits of its starting scientific scope - theoretical physics. Gradually it became clear that many results of synergy can be used in other problems, which makes it an interdisciplinary scientific approach, which explains the principals of creation and self-organization of models and structure of open unstable systems. However, the practical branches of human activity, such as economics and transport, have being used the traditional mathematics for the calculation and forecasts until the last time. At the same time, the monotonously growing complexity and scale of the world economical systems represents tendency to unexpected catastrophes and tectonic changes of the structure, which could not be calculated nor forecasted. These processes create an interest of the practical sciences to the synergy: the absence of the instruments that could describe the processes starts to be compensated by the qualitative possibilities to explain and forecast its development, that often become more important that knowledge of certain values. In this research an attempt to review the tendency of the global world transport system development from the view of modern science and explain the fluctuations that appear during the system evolution and do not lead to the paradigm change, and to identify the mechanisms of crises, catastrophes and change of system structure appearance is taken.

transport system, synergy, container system, system approach, catastrophe theory, seaports, container shipping, systems sustainability, systems reliability

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