THE PROBLEM OF FORECASTING VESSELS TRAJECTORIES IN THE WATER AREA

Abstract

The problem of assessing the navigation situation in the water area is investigated in the paper. An important aspect of this problem is the making of correct predictions of all vessels movement in the water area. The prediction of the trajectory of vessel movement can be made using the route of this vessel and its mathematical model. The parameters of the mathematical model of a particular ship and its maneuvering characteristics can be obtained from the database according to the parameters of the ship type and dimensions. But to build the correct trajectory of the vessel’s movement, it is necessary to know its route. If the vessel does not transmit its route by means of AIS system, then determining the route becomes a problem. In the absence of information about the vessel route, it is proposed to build it using indirect information. Based on the information about the water area from ECDIS, a navigation graph, representing all kinds of paths along which a vessel can move through this water area safely and legitimately, is built. Then, on the resulting graph for each specific vessel, a set of possible paths from its current position in the water area can be obtained. Each of the paths is assigned a weight (probability) of the ship movement along this path. In the future, these weights are recalculated and the paths with the maximum weight are used. In accordance with the proposed algorithm for each path, a route can be constructed as a sequence of waypoints. This route can be used to predict the trajectory of vessel movement in the water area. The approach proposed in the paper can be implemented in the system of ensuring the safety of navigation both on an unmanned vessel and in the vessel tracking management system.